NYU IHIF 2026: RevPAR Raised to 2.8% as Deals Rebound

At the 2026 NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum in New York, forecasters upgraded United States hotel performance projections while investment leaders signaled an accelerating transaction market [1][2]. CoStar and Tourism Economics revised their 2026 revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth outlook upward to 2.8%, while panelists highlighted that improved debt structures, high replacement costs, and strong upper-tier asset demand are driving renewed deal velocity [1][2].

What are the updated RevPAR and demand metrics for 2026?

CoStar and Tourism Economics significantly increased their full-year 2026 performance projections at the conference's opening session [2]. As Hotel Management reported, the joint forecast lifted projected RevPAR growth to 2.8%, up from the 0.6% gain projected in January 2026 [2]. This revision comes from stronger operational fundamentals across demand and pricing [2].

Projected demand growth moved from 0.4% in the January projection to 1.3%, lifting national occupancy expectations from 62.1% to 62.8% [2]. Average daily rate (ADR) growth expectations doubled from a 1% increase to 2% [2]. While all chain scales, including the economy tier, are now projected to post positive RevPAR growth in 2026, forecasters noted that ADR growth trailing inflation will keep pressure on operating margins [2].

Why are investors accelerating hotel transaction activity?

Deal activity is gaining momentum in 2026 following a rebound that began late in 2025 [1]. According to Hotel Dive, forum participants identified a more favorable debt market, secular tailwinds, growing foreign investment, and assets trading at historic discounts to replacement costs as primary drivers of dealmaking [1].

Michael Bluhm, managing director and global head of real estate, gaming, lodging and leisure at Jefferies, stated that lenders show a renewed willingness to finance large-scale transactions [1]. Bluhm pointed to Tilman Fertitta’s $17.6 billion bid to acquire Caesars Entertainment—supported by ten banks and roughly $11.9 billion in debt—as proof of deep capital structures returning to the market [1].

Where is construction activity concentrating amid supply constraints?

New supply additions are slowing nationally, with CoStar and Tourism Economics cutting their 2026 supply growth forecast from 0.7% to 0.4% [2]. High construction costs and the prevailing interest rate environment continue to suppress development [2].

Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality analytics at CoStar, reported that rooms under construction are decelerating in most regions [2]. New hotel development is heavily concentrated in a small group of fast-growing markets: Nashville, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Denver [2]. Outside of these five metros, ground-up development remains difficult to execute [2].

Which chain scales and revenue streams show the strongest growth?

Performance remains bifurcated between chain scales [1][2]. Investors and operators are prioritizing higher-tier properties due to superior growth trajectories, aligning with the spending power of higher-income travelers [1]. For example, KHP Capital Partners partner and chief investment officer Jeff Stulmaker highlighted the firm's recent opening of 1 Hotel Seattle as an investment targeting luxury lifestyle demand [1]. Midscale and upper midscale brands also continue to demonstrate stability [2].

Non-room amenities are outperforming standard room revenues [2]. According to Michael Grove, CEO of Hotstats, room revenue grew 4.2% year-over-year, making it the slowest-growing hotel revenue stream [2]. By comparison, ancillary departments generated higher year-over-year gains:

• Golf: +9.2% [2]
• Conferences and events: +6.3% [2]
• Wellness: +5.6% [2]
• Food and beverage: +4.5% [2]

What is the outlook for international inbound travel?

International inbound travel is projected to shift from a demand drag in 2025 to a modest net positive in 2026, according to Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics [2]. Robert O’Leary, deputy assistant secretary for travel and tourism at the National Travel and Tourism Office, emphasized to attendees that travel represents the largest service export of the United States [2].

However, near-term international events show mixed indicators [2]. Brett Horton, chief advocacy officer for the American Hotel & Lodging Association, noted that member data indicates World Cup bookings are trailing early forecasts [2]. Horton pointed to state and local policy barriers in host cities as contributing factors, though he noted the event provides operational lessons ahead of the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Los Angeles [2].